"If Nato fails to deter or defend effectively its Baltic members against Russian aggression, the costs for the Polish security would be horrendous." . First, Bandow 16 of CATO finds that historical Russia intervention is based on a strategic calculus by Putin making an intervention in the Baltics unlikely. Russian Aggression Spurs Neighbors to Rebuild Defenses - WSJ Most of these wargames, such as RAND's Baltic study, focus on fait accompli, an attack by the Russian government aimed at seizing terrain — then quickly digging in. Macron's Russia dialogue to be tested on Baltic trip ... Estonia: Russia attack not likely but Baltics under threat ... There was once hope that Russia could evolve into a democracy and become a close ally of Lithuania and the West. Since then, experts have made various predictions of what Moscow's next target for expansion might be. Russian Aggression In The Baltics Will Not Look Like Crimea (From RealClearDefense) May 21, 2021 Sarah White, M.A. EUCOM's initial response to Russia's 2014 intervention in Ukraine offers an indication of what it might do a second time around, notably, enhancing air policing in the Baltics with Air Force F-16s . Blinken: If Russia Attacks Ukraine, NATO Will Reinforce ... Ukrainian servicemen attend a rehearsal of an official ceremony to hand over tanks, armored personnel carriers, and military . No, Russian Aggression in the Baltics Will Not Be a Repeat ... Over the past year th Baltic states have become possibly the most vocal of all EU and NATO member states against Russia's aggression in Ukraine and an oft-cited target of Moscow's next land grab. Beyond the Headlines. The United States, the European Union, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and a number of other countries at the United Nations on Wednesday warned Russia of "severe cost" in case the latter advances on Ukraine. Russia's Strategic Interests and Actions in the Baltic Region. As always, NATO will be closely watching the massive drill . European NATO members Both the Baltics and Black Sea have seen aggressive Russian military activity and simmering tension and are seen as potential flashpoints for conflict. U.S. Air Forces in Europe support NATO Enhanced Air Policing missions, safeguarding the sovereignty of Allied airspace against Russian incursions We plan to support Standing NATO Maritime Group Two in 2022 with U.S. naval capability Ukrinform. Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance, research reports. Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine Is Backfiring Putin's military moves are rallying Ukrainians and unifying NATO. Despite focusing on the strategic direction west as seen from Russia, all other military districts, including the Northern Fleet, are expected to participate and contribute with forces and capabilities. While Russians worry about defending Kaliningrad, Poland and the Baltic countries fear a Russian strike to cut off the Baltics by seizing the Suwalki gap. The authors of this report assess how unconventional defense plans and capabilities — to include total and comprehensive defense, societal resilience, and resistance strategies — being pursued by the governments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (referred to as the Baltic states) can deter and counteract Russian hybrid aggression and military attacks in the Baltic region. Some 18,000 Russian ground and airborne troops are currently stationed close to the border areas with Estonia and Latvia complete with a substantial amount of offensive equipment that brings "absolute supremacy"to Russia in military terms against NATO forces in the Baltic region, according to estimates by the agency. This creates a dilemma for NATO: launch a costly counter-attack and risk heavy casualties and possibly a nuclear crisis or accept a Russian fait accompli and undermine faith in the credibility of the alliance. His trip, which will also include a visit to Latvia, comes at a particularly tense time between the EU and Moscow. In December 2021, Russia demanded of the United States and NATO that they sign a formal agreement that they would cease their activities to bring certain countries, particularly Ukraine and Georgia, into NATO membership and to place offensive weapons, particularly missile systems, within a broader range of countries within Central and Eastern Europe.1 As news headlines around the world . A future Russian invasion scenario—based on past behavior, current capabilities, and existing technologies—that could play out in a Baltic country might go like this: Russian agents infiltrate towns in the eastern parts of a Baltic country that have the most Russian speakers and foment a fake crisis—for instance, creating a narrative of . The diplomats from the Baltics had said taking attention off Russia and Eastern Europe risked . By Todd South. Ukraine, Estonia agree on joint action to repel Russian aggression - MFA Ukraine. In 2013, Russia's total trade with Latvia was $11.2 billion, making it Russia's 19th top trade partner, according to International Monetary Fund data. David Brennan 10/19/2021. Deterring Russian aggression and defend-ing the Baltic states will be far easier and . Since January 2015, the United States authorized more than $346.3 million in defense articles to the Baltic states via the Direct Commercial Sales process. National Security Concept 2017. The National Security Council spokesperson was reported as saying that negotiations will include "nothing about our allies and partners without our allies and partners . Making matters even worse, they are tenuously connected to the rest of NATO by only two roads that run through a 100-km wide corridor, often referred to . While all three Baltic states are threatened, the likely first target of Russian aggression is Latvia, as Moscow already started to destabilize it along ethnic lines. Wild Blue Yonder -- With the increase of Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2014 and the lessons learned that have stemmed from that conflict, the North American Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders have become more concerned about a Russian incursion into the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and the antiaccess/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities that Russia could bring to that conflict. Missing from the conversation, however, has been the rise of rocket artillery in Europe: specifically, the U.S. Army's 2018 activation of an artillery brigade in Germany, coupled with Romania and Poland's recent acquisition of U.S.-made High Mobility . May 12, 2021. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) pushed back on statements made by former defense and foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa), who said on Wednesday that NATO's article 4 should be invoked by Estonia to start discussions about additional forces in the Baltic states and Poland. A 2021 paper, published by the Swedish Research Agency, largely replicated the 2016 RAND report's conclusion that Russia's military can overwhelm the Baltic region in a matter of days. What Putin would like is to reunite Ukraine with Russia to make the combined states a credible major . On December 10, Finland became the 14 th country to acquire Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II fighter.While not a member of NATO, Finland is a member of the European Union and a liberal democracy—in short, the kind of country with whom the U.S. would like to share the F-35.The sale to Finland is also an indicator of the direction from which the U.S. and its allies believe the most . 2021 | 4 heritage.org Russia's permanent stationing of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad in By contrast, Russia's aggressive posture has recently increased significantly, with as many as 100,000 Russian troops and 100 battalion tactical groups, including armored tanks and artillery . This vulnerability was clearly not something . U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of U.S. European Command, said at a hearing Wednesday . Russia won't invade the Baltics in the status quo. Nikolenko stressed that only Ukraine and NATO members have the right to decide the vector of further development of their . Pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline are stored on the premises of the port of Mukran near Sassnitz, Germany, on Dec. 4, 2020. From an informational warfare standpoint, Zapad 2021 was, at least in part, intended to frighten the West and raise questions about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) ability to defend its three Baltic members—Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.However, the exercise also exposed doubts about Russia's ability to defend Kaliningrad. PARIS — When French President Emmanuel Macron flies to Lithuania on Monday for a three-day trip to the Baltics, he will be heading to the frontline of skepticism toward his Russia strategy. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, rather than becoming a laboratory for close Russian-European cooperation, has been rebuilt as a military fortress, a behind-the-lines West Berlin on steroids. That means Washington's initial response to Russia will be limited by the anti-Russian, irrational views of Poland, the Baltics states and the unhinged Kiev regime. (2017). This is a 21st century replay of the tensions that blighted American and Russian life — indeed, much of human . Russia Aggression Answers. "It is the reversal of the escalation and the ending of Russia's international armed conflict that is the best guarantee of security on the continent," Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko said. Russia recently amassed 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, and later used new combat robots in large military drills with its ex-Soviet ally Belarus near the Baltics. Diplomacy must not . Just weeks ago the Lithuanian parliament approved mandatory conscription - for youths aged 19 and 26 - citing changed "geopolitical conditions". September 28, 2020 4:02 am. of four battle groups deterring Russian aggression in Poland and the Baltics. Notably, RAND's Baltic assessment sparked ample dialogue regarding the forward-basing and rotational deployments of maneuver forces. House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith said there was no "fiscal way" to prepare to win an all-out war with the . Theoretical Russian Aggression: Pentagon Leads Large-Scale Airborne Exercises in Baltic, Black Seas by Rick Rozoff Posted on May 9, 2021 May 9, 2021 Categories News Under the pretext of deterring "Russian aggression" the United States is increasing its military presence in Baltic region. "Deterrence", however, does not really work here. Local conditions in the Baltics are geographically, socially, economically and politically more complex than was the case in Western Europe during the Cold War. If Russia commits renewed aggression against Ukraine, I think it's a very fair prospect that NATO will reinforce its positions along its -- the Eastern flank, the countries that border Russia. Each of the Baltic states has significant Russian-speaking ethnic minority populations, especially so in Latvia and Estonia, where the number is at least 25% . The second part sums up NATO's response to this evolving strategic challenge, including the potential military threat posed by Russia. By Rym Momtaz. . However, Russian aggression toward the Baltics plays out, if it plays out, the U.S. and NATO should not take the security measures in place there for granted. NATO has wrestled with how to defend its Baltic member states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania ever since their accession to the Alliance in 2004. Russia is sharply upgrading the firepower of its Baltic Fleet by adding warships armed with long-range cruise missiles to counter NATO's build-up in the region, Russian media reported on Wednesday. Russia's natural gas pipeline to Europe is built and . Buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine's border that has some talking of war The war of words between NATO and Russia over Ukraine is reaching another highpoint — with Russian troops massing at . (2017). Poland and Baltic Fear Biden Abandonment to Appease Russia: Experts. US points to 'evidence' that Russia has plans for aggression against Ukraine Riga (AFP) Dec 1, 2021 - US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday Washington had seen "evidence" Russia could be planning an invasion on Ukraine, threatening Moscow with painful economic sanctions if it attacks. Baltic state officials may also have judged that any threat from Zapad-21 may be limited given the context: Russia's military exercises mark the operational revision of Russia's defense plans, which expired in 2020, and a new national defense plan is to be signed soon. Today marks the start of Russia's quadrennial Zapad military exercise. So there is no military need for Putin and his chauvinistic circle to invade Baltic states that would only be a constant nuisance if occupied since they have nothing in common with Russia. Russian attack in Ukraine should bring full-time US presence on Kremlin's doorstep, former top generals advise by John Vandiver • Stars and Stripes • January 3, 2022 The Combined Resolve XVI. Retrieved December 7, 2020, from The drills are taking place on the very eve of the Duma elections (from . By 2019, trade fell by more than half to $5.4 billion, dropping Latvia to Russia's 25th top trade partner. Russian pipeline concerns intensify. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in the largest land seizure in Europe since World War II. Jacqueline Feldscher | December 3, 2021 Russia Europe White House President Joe Biden said Friday that he is crafting a "comprehensive and meaningful" plan to deter Russia, which has built up its. Pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline are stored on the premises of the port of Mukran near Sassnitz, Germany, on Dec. 4, 2020. Russia's continued military brinkmanship (by its aircraft, in particular) coupled with inadequate crisis communication tools could trigger accidental escalation. Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance, research reports. That's according to the . Zapad-2021: Russia is perfecting the art of grey-zone warfare. Russia's natural . Kallas said Reinsalu is just looking for political attention. While Russia has since the days of Muscovy has had historical designs on the Baltics—which were conquered under the Russian Emperor Peter the Great during the Great Northern War that ran from 1700 to 1721—in order to secure access to the sea, the current leadership in the Kremlin hopes to build up its facilities in St. Petersburg as a . Russian aggression on the rise in the Balkans, Army four-star says. unannounced mass drills in the border area and on the Baltic and Black Seas), hybrid operations and possible armed provocations (airspace violations, land border violations, shelling), cyber attacks, including against critical . Western Nations at UN Warn Russia of 'Severe Cost' in Case of Aggression Against Ukraine. On 24 August, the Swedish Armed Forces issued a press release stating that they were stepping up military readiness because of Russian and Western military activity in the Baltic Sea region of an intensity not seen since the Cold War. Zapad-2021 is the next of Russia's annual strategic large-scale military exercises, due to culminate in September 2021. By Kori Schake Sergei Supinsky / AFP / Getty December 29, 2021, 8:40 AM ET. doi:10.7249/rr2779 15Estonia, Ministry of Defence. This report deals with Russia's geopolitical objectives, policy and strategy, and their effects across the wider Baltic Region. National Security Concept 2017. Russia has an outlet to the Baltic Sea,a historic goal. The press release raised the interest of the media and was reported by various outlets, including the Financial Times and the Washington Post. If Russia commits renewed aggression against Ukraine, I think it's a very fair prospect that NATO will reinforce its positions along its -- the Eastern flank, the countries that border Russia. The Russian diaspora in the Baltic States have created an individualised and situational conception of their identity, and therefore Russian propaganda and sharp power is less effective as the assumptions upon which it is based, that ethnic Russians are inherently loyal to Russia and therefore to the Kremlin, is not accepted by the entire diaspora. 1. But in the wake of Russia's aggression in Georgia and Ukraine, Lithuania was right to assume a tough stance towards its big neighbour, says Dominique . NATO united against any Russian aggression, US says after meeting. Baltics and EU need rapprochement with Russia, but on their terms - interview. But if the. Potential vulnerability in the Baltics is a good enough reason to fortify NATO defenses, especially on the Polish border, and to increase the support given to deterrence measures by . Russia's continuing aggressive military posture, its refusal to fully comply with its obligations under the Treaty on Open Skies, its ongoing selective implementation of the Vienna Document, and its long-standing failure to implement the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, continue to undermine security and stability in the Euro . Total trade between Russia and the Baltics has fallen between 2013 and 2019. An important component of NATO's strengthened deterrence and defence posture is military presence in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Alliance territory. Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba on Wednesday, December 1, held talks with Estonia's Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets during the meeting of the NATO North Atlantic Council in Riga. 01.12.2021 15:30. In late 2021, satellite photos revealed Russian hardware -- including self-propelled guns, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles -- on the move at a training ground roughly 186 miles (300 km . No, Russian Aggression in the Baltics Will Not Be a Repeat of Crimea. Mar 13, 2019. Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance Introduction The governments and citizens of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the Baltic states—are subject to daily Russian strategic information operations and propaganda activities that are part of campaigns On Uniqueness. A 2021 paper, published by the Swedish Research Agency, largely replicated the 2016 RAND report's conclusion that Russia's military can overwhelm the Baltic region in a matter of days. Deterring Russian aggression and defending the Baltic states will be far easier and cheaper than liberating them. • An accidental military incident—such as a Russian fighter jet accidentally crashing into a U.S. destroyer in the Baltic Sea—could escalate rapidly. Russian Aggression Spurs Neighbors to Rebuild Defenses Sweden has overturned decades of its own defense and foreign policy to strengthen its military and tighten ties with the U.S. Allies implemented the 2016 Warsaw Summit decisions to establish NATO's forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and to develop a tailored forward presence in the Black Sea region. Aggressive hybrid actions against NATO's eastern flank countries (including Poland): displays of force (e.g. Russia intervened in Georgia to minimize the threat of anti-Russian . However, Russian aggression toward the Baltics plays out, if it plays out, the U.S. and NATO should not take the security . NATO, the US, and Ukraine responded with a rebuke. Thankfully Russian invasion has been avoided thanks in part to the Warsaw Summit of 2016 and the establishment of NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence force which has acted as an effective deterrence against Putin's little green men who of course are much in evidence within Ukraine. Since 2015, the United States' FMF contribution to the Baltic states exceeded $250 million. the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and in Syria. Retrieved December 7, 2020, from Migrant crisis sparks new fears of Russian aggression in Poland's frozen north-east . 10 facts you should know about russian military aggression against Ukraine19 "The real goal of Putin is the collapse of the Ukrainian statehood in its present form, the destruction of the Ukrainian statehood, the destabilization of Ukraine, so that in its current form it ceases to exist, was reassembled in some new form with some, perhaps, a new Constitution." Three warrants. doi:10.7249/rr2779 15Estonia, Ministry of Defence. This contribution is due in part to the resurgence of Russian aggression over the past few years. Even with the Baltic states shielded by Article V, Putin's Russia still has the will and the means to attack one or more of them. 2021-12-22T22:54+0000. Biden and Merkel vowed to work together to defend against Russian aggression and stand up to anti-democratic actions by China, and also spoke to the importance of the . Baltic states vow to tighten defense ties with an eye on Russia May 24, 2021 Lithuanian soldiers of the Lynx NATO mission are pictured ahead of a visit of French President Emmanuel Macron at the . The authors of this report assess how unconventional defense plans and capabilities — to include total and comprehensive defense, societal resilience, and resistance strategies — being pursued by the governments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (referred to as the Baltic states) can deter and counteract Russian hybrid aggression and military attacks in the Baltic region. But if the Baltics have really been so vulnerable for so many years, why is it that the Russians have yet to attack? Pentagon budget puts US at risk of Chinese and Russian aggression, experts say. a. The rise of a more aggressive Russia over the course of the last decade, however, has raised fears amongst the Baltic states and their new allies in the West about their relative security. At the 2021 NATO summit, the U.S. must push NATO to act strategically and continue. which is designed to deter the kind of Russian aggression that . All three militarily weak countries sit uncomfortably close to NATO's main adversary, Russia. Thu 15 Jul 2021 20.05 EDT . Over the past year, NATO, European, and Baltic leaders frequently evoked concerns of Russian aggression spreading from Ukraine to the Baltic region and given the seriousness of the situation, rightly so. The 30 allies of NATO are united against Russian military action in Ukraine, the United States mission to the alliance said on . 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