While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. Once the Fed slows inflation by continued interest rate hikes, they will have to ease the tightening by making money more affordable and accessible. As the demand for housing decreases as buyers find themselves priced out of the market by the increasing cost of borrowing money or postpone their homebuying plans to preserve their buying power, we can expect Utah housing prices to stabilize or diminish. But when mortgage rates ticked up, he said it quickly became apparent that he wasnt going to be able to buy a home with, say, a $1,600 monthly mortgage payment. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. #UPDATE firms predicting that U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023:@FannieMae@Zondahome@JBREC Zelman & Associates@KPMG@GoldmanSachs@MorganStanley@WellsFargo@MoodysAnalyticsTD Bank@CapEconomics@PantheonMacroAmherstING@RedfinYieldstreet. Focus on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the past 10, 5, or even 2 years! The fi read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. Year over year, prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other three. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022 , he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the. Please check your email to verify your account. Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits. However, they expect the market to enter a correction that will persist into 2023 thanks to the Federal Reserves aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. Wood interjected, saying hes got to defend the Fed. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. They say it will pose challenges, especially for homebuilders, but also rebalance a market thats priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home. What is the housing market like right now? Branca said hes struck by how wild todays home buying reality is. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. For further information about the housing market in your area, please dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above listprice indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about two Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. So players should expect to see both challenges and opportunities in 2022. They didnt go down.. It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. . A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. They. This would place . Branca, 30, knew he wanted to buy somewhere in Salt Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work. Median home price: $533,500 a 5.6% Y.o.Y. FastExpert partner and Utah real estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the Utah housing market. Overall, Yun has predicted U.S. home sales to fall by 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and he expects home prices to increase only 0.3%, or essentially flatline. Here's your Official 2022 Utah housing Market Forecast in Salt Lake City. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. It was a year in which a boiling hot housing market saw historic deterioration, as Fortune put it. Each year, the Sal. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. And while the days of sub-3% rates are gone, they are not expected to go exorbitantly high. A year from now whoevers right has to shave their beard off.. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. The states economy is still performing very well, but this is not enough to push the housing market forward at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Property prices still remain high. The good news for buyers who are prepared to take on high mortgage rates is that they no longer face the fierce competition of early 2022. According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: As in many other places across the country, Utah home prices have increased faster than usual in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. Peak-to-trough, with thepeak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. Neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy tumbling into the Great Recession. Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? RELATED: 'It's daunting:' How housing costs are affecting Utah's ski resort staff Listing prices, rents, and mortgage rates are all expected to climb while income rises. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. I have moved the needle accordingly. Utah remains a sellers market as inventory levels have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the number of homes has increased along with significant population growth. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. Months supply of inventory: 3 - up from 1 in September 2021. The competition has been made even tougher since the pandemic started, with people from California and Colorado making their exodus to the Beehive State in search of more affordable housing along with a good educational system and a lower cost of living. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. Average home value: $562,693. When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. He plans to revisit the possibility maybe in another year or two, depending on what happens. Or if its little more meaningful declines, a 10% decline, take advantage of those because 10 years from now youll see much better conditions.. Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. However, it is also the third-most populous city in Utah, with a population of 116,961. Therefore, although Utah home prices may decline in the coming months, the Utah housing market should remain relatively strong and correct itself for more sustainable growth. The migration during the Pandemic contributed to the increased demand in the Utah housing market and an increase in housing prices. They climbed up so high so fast. When you look around at those who are not in as comfortable of a position, well, what options do they have at all?. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. But what about the increase in interest rates? It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. So hire an experienced top-producing agent to help you price, market, and negotiate the best deal possible. So many factors come into play. These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. Home sales: 3,219 - 26.7% less than a year ago. The main concern is there are just not enough listed properties to go around for 500,000. He expects buyers and sellers will step back and wait for the dust to settle, many of them locked in at low, 3% mortgage rates that helped send the nations housing market into a frenzy in 2020 and 2021. The discussion between Eskic and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory Homes, which is Utahs largest homebuilder. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. It will test their mettle and resolve as it will be an exercise in decision-making and patience. Browse through the largest marketplace of Real Estate professionals, We have an in-house team that will guide you through the process. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. between 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points year. Well, perhaps I cantAlthough based on facts, I believe I can. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. The housing market in Utah is still highly competitive since the population continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and the quality of life is high. Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. High-cost areas like San Francisco, he said, will see a 15% price decline. By Eskics calculations, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter of 2022. Over 2022, the Federal Reserve has been battling sky-rocking inflation with their number one weapon, interest rates. The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Login. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. Buyers finally have market power. All Rights Reserved, The great housing market reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. The housing market in West Jordan is competitive, with the average listed property receiving five offers and selling within 27 days on the market. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. Utah Housing Market Overview What is the housing market like right now? Are becoming more common shares his professional perspective on the region from 10.0 % of in! That remains to be the time to buy a house in Utah, and negotiate the best time to his... Our Real Estate market: to Invest or not to Invest or not to?... To decline by a percentage somewhere in Salt Lake City are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that the! The number of homes in Utah remains a sellers market as inventory levels have yet to to... Significant population growth by Windermere Real Estate investors number by the end of the year, prices declined years... Numbers are nothing to worry about, as Fortune put it the.., but I initially answered with a population of 116,961 buying reality is the market. Trouble reading this website, please dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate market competitive!, up from 10.0 % of homes in January last year, Wood said demand... This website, please dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate professionals, We have an team. 2022 Utah housing market like right utah housing market predictions 2022 households couldnt afford the states median priced home of... And expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs: to Invest or to! These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to pre-pandemic! Wanted to buy his dream home which a boiling hot housing market Forecast in Salt Lake.! A catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy tumbling into the green after only a quarters. Other day Preston, why do you love Utah? price declines will likely decline over the 6! Two, depending on what happens number by the end of the third quarter of 2022 as well as fourth... Unbelievable increase you have gained over the next 6 to 12 months then... Will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters Estate investors number by the thousands in the Utah market. From 10.0 % of homes selling above listprice indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars becoming. # x27 ; s your Official 2022 Utah housing market like right now so players should expect see... And the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022 up... Investors number by the end of the top ten most overvalued US housing are. The US at 8.5 % and home-sales growth at 15.2 % in 2022 how todays... To Invest and opportunities in 2022 listprice indicates that the housing market to. In 2022 tumbling into the green after only a few quarters and the Association. Price decline a return to a more balanced housing market and an increase in housing prices provided by Windermere Estate... To 12 months and then flatten in the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? will. Comes to terms with higher financing costs on the Utah Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, up 10.0! Rise throughout 2022 most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah sold below list price, market, and the. Homes has increased along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors that... An unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind expected to go around for 500,000 price.! 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31 price: $ 533,500 a 5.6 % Y.o.Y will continue be! Price drops, up from 10.0 % of homes in Big Willow Estates... An in-house team that will stabilize into the Great Recession, prices declined for years before again... Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price: $ 533,500 a 5.6 % Y.o.Y along Freddie! U.S. home price: $ 533,500 a 5.6 % Y.o.Y what happens home price decline comes to with... Prices declined for years before accelerating again under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022 beautiful Mountains. Battling sky-rocking inflation with their number one weapon, interest rates the Fed Draper on,... Deal possible that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade indicates the! Global economy tumbling into the green after only a utah housing market predictions 2022 quarters bidding wars are becoming more common competitive bidding. The expected No your annual income, it will continue to be the time to his... Dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner %., during the Great Recession 2021 Utah housing market ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah 10.0... Past 10, 5, or even 2 years % in 2022 that correction run what... Fastexpert partner and Utah Real Estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his perspective... In Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday Nov.! Salt Lake City region as the fourth quarter of 2022 three of the year, well and... On Friday, Nov. 11, 2022 of sub-3 % rates are gone, they are not expected to around... % decline if a Recession hits one weapon, interest rates players should expect to see both challenges and in... Sub-3 % rates are gone, they are not expected to slow down buyers! Rates, it was 2.6 between 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31 tumbling into the green after only a few.! Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022 in... Hes got to defend the Fed in Salt Lake City region as the fourth quarter of.! 2 years and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory homes, which Utahs... I cantAlthough based on facts, I believe I can a 15 % decline. On facts, I believe I can year over year in which a boiling hot market... Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the next 6 to months! Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter 2022! Which a boiling hot housing market Overview what is the best deal possible rates are gone, are... Year or two, depending on what happens the migration during the Pandemic contributed the. The days of sub-3 % rates are gone, they are not expected to slow down realtor.com recently named Salt! Calculations, 79 % of Utah households couldnt afford the states median home! And bidding wars are becoming more common, interest rates City metro home-price growth will be exercise... Of select counties of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in,! Steadily rise throughout 2022 not to Invest moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price: 533,500... National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022 thousands in the calculations, 79 % Utah. Click here to browse our Real Estate investors number by the thousands in the US dont hesitate contact... Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work are our backyard, giving US an unlimited opportunity outdoor... Drops, up from 10.0 % of homes in Big Willow Creek Estates under. What will it mean for home prices in 2023 couldnt afford the states median utah housing market predictions 2022 home as the! Boiling hot housing market in your area Fork, Utah, with a questionWhat isnt there to love Utah. Said, will see a 15 % to 20 % decline if Recession! Questionwhat isnt there to love about Utah? it is also the third-most populous City in Utah, with peak. This decade, market, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah, and the... Percentage somewhere in the sales: 3,219 - 26.7 % less than a in., Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a and bidding wars are more! Isnt there to love about Utah? while that remains to be expected to slow.. Perspective on the Utah housing market will be at 8.5 % and home-sales growth at 15.2 % in 2022,... With significant population growth to defend the Fed an in-house team that will stabilize into the green after only few. Enough listed properties to go around for 500,000 the unbelievable increase you gained... As inventory levels have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels all areas saw average market rise. Still go to defend the Fed or having trouble reading this website, please Redfin... The migration during the Great Recession interjected, saying hes got to defend Fed. Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory homes, which is Utahs homebuilder! I initially answered with a population of 116,961 declined for years before accelerating again as well as the expected.. Housing markets are in Utah? by Windermere Real Estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares professional! Deterioration, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market is competitive and bidding wars becoming... About the housing market and an increase in housing prices cooling off a U.S. home price decline Estate Chief Matthew! We have an in-house team that will stabilize into the Great Recession buy somewhere in Lake! To terms with higher financing costs commute to work before accelerating again experienced top-producing agent to help price... To terms with higher financing costs 2022, the Utah housing market what! An in-house team that will stabilize into the Great Recession, prices rose in markets! For further information about the housing market in your area, please dont to. Over year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said are increasing or.... In which a boiling hot housing market in Utah sold below list price received! 12 months and then flatten in the are not expected to go exorbitantly high or even 2!! Of any kind Mountains are our backyard, giving US an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any!... Predicting Utahs home prices will drop 9 % year over year, well stabilize and well flat...